A baby bust and Brexit mean that London is the only major city in Britain that’s getting older

Britain is getting older, with the median age up by more than seven years since 1974. But this ageing is being driven by rural and coastal regions, as cities are getting younger, while London is a major exception to these trends, according to new research from the Resolution Foundation, published today (Wednesday).

Ageing in the fast and slow lane reveals that while the average age in the UK has been increasing slowly but surely, as it is across all developed countries, this is not true throughout the country, with some places ageing rapidly, while others get younger.

The oldest local authority (North Norfolk, where the median age of residents is 55.3 years) is 25 years older than the youngest (Tower Hamlets, 30.6) – and age gaps between these types of places are continuing to grow.

Since 2001, the age gap between the oldest local authorities (90^th percentile) and the youngest local authorities (10^th percentile) has increased by 5.5 years. This is because areas that already have an above-average median age – often coastal or rural areas – are ageing quicker than the national average. For example, the median age in Argyll increased by nine years between 2001 and 2022, compared to a national increase of 3 years.

The analysis shows that, while these regions are ageing, most of our large cities (including Bristol, Newcastle, Cardiff and Nottingham) have actually been getting younger. In Salford, the median age has fallen by three years since 2001. Both Newcastle and Nottingham have seen a drop of two years. When grouped together, the median age in ‘core cities’ outside London has dropped by 0.5 years between 2001 and 2023.

However, London is the one major city which bucks this trend, with the median age in the capital increasing from 33.8 to 35.8 between 2011 and 2023. This divergence between trends in London and other large UK cities appears to be driven by both Brexit and a ‘baby bust’, says the author.

The boom in international migration that followed the UK’s departure from the European Union has led to higher net arrivals of young migrants outside the capital, but net migration to London has remained fairly constant. Between 2019 and 2023, London gained an average of 22,000 young people (25-30) each year – slightly lower than the average over the previous 17 years (equivalent to 23,000 young people each year between 2002 and 2018).

In contrast, core cities outside of London gained an average of only 6,000 young people each year between 2002 and 2018, but this increased significantly to an average gain of 15,000 between 2019 and 2023. This means that young migrants moving to the capital for work are still exerting a downward pressure on London’s average age, but this effect is not as pronounced – relative to other cities – as in earlier years.

At the same time, London’s birth rate has declined faster than the national trend. Nationally, the birth rate fell from 12 births per 1,000 people during the 2000s to 11 births per 1,000 people in the 2010s. In London, that same figure fell from 16 to 14 births per 1,000. This drop-off in births effectively added six months to the capital’s median age.

The Foundation notes that coastal and rural regions are widely expected to continue ageing quickly, which could create challenges for local and central government. The rising need for public services that cater for from an ageing population will be most acute in areas like the Derbyshire Dales which have aged by nine years since 2001 (compared to a three-year increase nationally), and growing demographic divergences will complicate efforts to deliver the appropriate kinds of public services to local populations.

Many local areas are already struggling to meet the level of care required for an ageing population. For example, seven-in-ten people over 65 in Gloucestershire are not receiving the support they request. Similarly, declining birth rates in some local areas may necessitate the rolling back of school provision at the same time as demand increases for adult social care in other areas, presenting challenges for local, regional and national Government.

Nye Cominetti, Principal Economist at the Resolution Foundation, said:

“Britain is getting older, but not at an even rate. The coast and the countryside, which were already older, are ageing fastest. In contrast, many major cities across the midlands and the north are getting younger.

“London is the one city bucking this trend. Changing immigration flows since Brexit, combined with falling birthrates from a baby bust steeper than the national average, have worked together to age the capital over the past decade.

“These demographic trends will have profound implications for the local provision of public services, from education to health and care – and the Government will need to carefully consider their long-term consequences.”