Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances A man for all seasons? What the Chancellor can expect in the OBR’s Spring outlook 8 March 2018 Matthew Whittaker On a number of measures, the economic outlook has brightened a little since the ‘bloodbath’ of the Autumn Budget, meaning the Chancellor is likely to receive some good news on the deficit at next week’s Spring Statement But if the OBR follows the same path as the Bank of England and other forecasters, it is likely to confine its upgrades to the near-term. And we know that the living standards outlook will certainly be clouded by tax and benefit policy changes coming into effect in April – especially in the bottom half of the income distribution Increased headroom on the public finances provides more space for some fiscal loosening in the near-term. But, easing pressures on public finances and working-age welfare over the longer-term would likely need to come alongside an increase in revenues. This is especially the case given the fiscal pressures associated with an ageing population
