This briefing note previews the key decisions facing the Chancellor at Autumn Budget 2026. It assesses how the economic backdrop is likely to affect the OBR’s fiscal forecasts, and sets out how the Government should respond to the twin challenges of another rise in the cost of living and stretched public finances. The UK economy has been more resilient than expected, growing by 1.1 per cent in the first half of 2026, the fastest rate in the G7. But conflict in the Middle East has once again pushed up energy prices and interest rates. Household energy bills are expected to rise to around £2,000 from January, close to the peak reached after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.